Spring revolution will be over just like this. It’ll end with uprisings and explosions here and there. It’ll end with killing some ward administrators, polices and junta informants. It’ll only be left with civil servants losing their jobs and the lives of young people ruined. Political profiteers and dishonest fundraisers will grow rich and military council will win in the end. That’s the psywar used by the junta lobby in unison. It’s not a new psywar, they have been using this since April, 2021. Because of this psywar, some of CDMers turn into Non-CDMers. Now this psywar is being brought up again at high speed. To say how do I know, more than 20 people from social media are asking me like: “Will it be over like this? Will it be like 1988? Will we win?”, etc. I am answering those questions though I am not free. If you don’t wanna read too much, read this one sentence below;
” It won’t be over like this. Situation like 1988 won’t happen again. We will definitely win. The revolution will surely prevail.”
(If you wanna read a long text, you may continue reading the following review article.)
“Analysis of the Revolutionary Situation”
The current spring revolution is succeeding in both resistance and attack. The resistance which I mean is the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). CDM of civil servants (CDM of healthcare workers, educational and other departmental staff) is successful far beyond expectation. To say how successful CDM is, non-CDMers can’t give public services properly and they are forced to do irrelevant work. The resistance of civil servants’ CDM is still succeeding as there are many CDMers with conviction.
Also, people’s CDM is still succeeding. As in Education, the enrollment rate is less than 20% nationwide. Banking processes are not running properly. Lottery tickets are not sold regularly. Although the military council is lying that the government is operating normally, no sector is operating normally at all.
In conclusion, the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) is still successful. The defense of the spring revolution won’t be collapsed by any means. This is because people with strong conviction will revolt until the military council collapses or they transfer the power.
The attack of the spring revolution is the activity of the Public Defense Force (PDF), counter attack and help of the Ethnic Armed Organization (EAO), international cooperation of CRPH and NUG, legal litigation against the military council, cooperation with stakeholders involved in the spring revolution, various ways of the strike of myanmar people at home and abroad against military regime, international sanction against the military council and diplomatic assistance to NUG and they are gradually getting stronger and succeeding.
Here it is gonna be too long and boring if I explain each and every sector in detail. So I will analyze about PDF in which most people are interest.
When democracy can’t be achieved by little finger (election) and three fingers (peaceful demonstration), we have to bend our index fingers to fight back. The only way to the victory of the spring revolution is to revolt with arms. As a result, many young people have to go into the wilderness.
Phase 1 of revolution is implemented with the elimination of junta informants. Eliminating the ward administrators, junta soldiers and members of military alliance parties isn’t a reckless act. It’s an implementation of the Phase 1 of revolution with the Guerrilla Strategy to combat enemies.
When facing enemies with superior manpower and armed power, we have to fight back with guerrilla strategy. If we confront them without using guerrilla strategy, we’ll be defeated.
For example, we can learn about Commander Bandula. Although he was brave and not afraid of death, he was defeated when confronting by an overpowered British Colony. It’s the same for the spring revolution. They are using guerrilla strategy because of inferior manpower and arms power. Junta informants eliminated by PDF are pillars of the military council. Before elimination, PDF always performs 2 processes. The first one is listing the junta informants. After getting the list, they investigate properly whether they are actually harming people or not. After confirming that they are harming people, they are warned or threatened as the second stage. Even so, if they continue harming people, they will be eliminated. PDF does not kill every ward administrators and members of the USDP (Union Solidarity and Development Party: alliance party of the junta).
(I am explaining this because some people are defaming that PDF kills innocent civilians if they are not satisfied with them or if they are not NLD supporters.) The next thing is that some revolutionaries are criticizing PDF with dissatisfaction. It’s that “Why are PDF killing infantry, police and administrators? Instead they should kill the police chief, Major and Commander.” Actually, that’s not so easy. The main reason is safety. If possible, they want to cut them into pieces after killing Min Aung Hlaing and his allies. But it is not easy to assassinate because in the military, the higher the rank, the tighter the security.
Don’t have any doubt about eliminating the underlings. Also, don’t be depressed. On the battlefield, only those infantry would fight to death. Now, the pillars loyal to the military council are gradually depleting. The number of junta soldiers protecting them is dwindling gradually.
Phase 1 is successful and there are only a few days left to start phase 2. I can’t explain phase 2. I’ll stop here as I am concerned about informing the enemy in advance.
When will D day be called for? Why not calling it?
After phase 1, there will be Phase 2. NUG won’t call for D day at the moment. That’s because to call for D day, two important stages of Phase 2 haven’t been completed. The first one is to collaborate with PDF across the country and the second is to buy weapons.
There is nothing that the military council is afraid of. But they are afraid of PDFs. The military supporters and lobby may laugh if I say like this. They would say “Is it possible to be afraid of young people (PDF)? How can PDFs who are trained only for one month be compared with the Standard Army?” Look at those talking people, they lock their profiles and use fake accounts without uploading real photos. I am telling this but actually they are really scared. Now the military council has no attention to CDM and does not care the protest. They only focus on the demolition of PDF by various means. This is because only PDF can really harm them. Now hearing the word “PDF”, junta soldiers and their supporters feel chilled.
Therefore, the military council is faking the stories and videos so that they can propagandize their people to get motivated, excited and not to be afraid. The main purpose of propaganda is to frighten PDF not to be armed and to deceive their people.
In conclusion, the spring revolution is succeeding step by step. There is only a short time left until our victory. It is taking time for the spring revolution to go phase by phase, because NUG doesn’t want a civil war, fearing that many people would get hurt. NUG is working hard to buy weapons and getting armed despite the blockade by the military council in various ways.
I can assert that the spring revolution will be “the victory of the people”.
The facts that the people will win without losing, unlike 1988;
(1) In 1988, despite the strong mass uprising, there was a weak in integration. In the case of the spring revolution, there is both strong mass uprising and integration. There has never been such unity of the people throughout the history of the country.
(2) In 1988, people revolted without experience, but now in the spring revolution, the experienced persons from 1988 are leading the revolution, so the people know the junta’s conspiracy in advance.
(3) In 1988, young people led the revolution and also in the spring revolution. Although they have the same bravery and sacrifice, GZ (Generation Z) of the spring revolution have more cleverness , tactics, intuition and creativity.
(4) In 1988, there was no organization to lead systematically, to guide and to rely on. In the spring revolution, NUG and CRPH are leading systematically.
(5) In 1988, there wasn’t proper collaboration between Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and others organizations. In the spring revolution, there is systematic collaboration with EAOs such as KNU and KIA.
(6) In 1988, the international community could only impose sanctions and could not exert intense pressure. In the spring revolution, pro-democracy countries around the world impose sanctions and intense pressure on China and the military council. And they are also taking the Myanmar issue as a serious matter.
(7) In 1988, due to the low level of communication technology, information was suppressed. The psywar was successful. The spring revolution is in the era of technological advancement, so the flow of information can’t be blocked, psywar isn’t successful and lies are exposed.
(8) In 1988, there were few revolutionaries with strong conviction. There were many people who would fight as much as they could. Even if they can’t fight, they would not live under military rules. In the spring revolution, there are lots of revolutionaries with strong convictions who will fight until the death of the military council or transfer of the power. Whether there is anyone or not, many people will fight till their victory because they are not fighting for the sake of anyone.
(9) In 1988, young people went to the jungle and could not return for various reasons. During the spring revolution, young people were walking around the urban and jungle back and froth.
(10) In 1988, the army had superior power because it had many intelligent military leaders. During the spring revolution, the army is in disarray because other military leaders, including Min Aung Hlaing, could not properly control the army. They are defeated in every battle. There are more and more soldiers running away from the military and more and more soldiers joining CDM.
(11) In 1988, there was no proper road map or strategy for the revolution. Roadmaps and strategies have been drawn up for the spring revolution. The military is trying hard to uproot those. They are facing problems because they don’t know the strategy and process. They use a variety of psywar to make NUG for the disclosure. When NUG doesn’t disclose it, they make conflicts between NUG and people.
Thank you very much for your patience in reading this long text. Of all the articles I have ever written, this one is the most time-consuming and causes me a hard time thinking. Because I wanna let our revolutionary comrades know what they need to know and not let the enemies know what they shouldn’t know.
The military dictatorship must fail.
The revolution shall prevail.
#Credit to Moe Kha
(2nd July 2021)